It’s certainly not for everyone. Though there are several A2AHP people using it.
There is a sister program by the same developer called Predheat, which I have never looked at. You may want to check it out here. On a quick glance it may be something that may be suitable for you when it has been developed a bit more. It doesn’t seem to be in active development.
As far as your points about Predbat:
- the load forecast is based on historic usage, but not necessarily from the last 10 days. This is parametrically defined - you could use 90% of yesterday and 10% of the day before, for example. Entirely up to you. Personally, I use up to 3 weeks data, with the last week and the current day of the week weighted more heavily.
- Solcast forecasts are indeed very noisy (and optimistic in my experience) in its predictions. Predbat addresses this by allowing you to parametrically manage the balance between Solcast’s 50% and 10% forecasts. And of course you are able to adjust these forecasts yourself by changing the efficiency setting within Solcast.
- Predbat contains a (clunky atm) mechanism for manual override, if you want to do so.
- Predbat dynamically adjusts its actions every [10] minutes depending on what is happening, and - for example - includes a parameter allowing you to increase the importance in the load forecast of the experience so far today should you choose.
Anyway, I am starting to sound like a fanboy, which is not my intention. Most people start off running Predbat in “monitor only, no action” mode, to see how it would work for them. If you have time and interest it’s quite interesting. 